Indeed, last weekends tweet of Hassan Rouhani(President of Islamic Republic of Iran) about #IMPLEMENTATION DAY was strong enough for the steam of consciousness that jerked my mind and took me 6 months behind, right in July,2015.
Perhaps it was the month of Ramadan. On 14th of that July, with the conclusion of Nuclear Non Proliferation treaty of Iran with P5+1(i.e US,UK,China,Russia,Germany and France), the Gulf history entered a new era. Yes, theres no exageration about it. That was an attempt to halt the seemingly inexorable wanning in Irans already crippled economy.
Lets have a quick recap of treaty. ● Irans uranium stockpile shall be reduced by 98% to just 300kg for 15 years ● Out of their 20,000 centrifuges( in which uranium hexaflouride is fed to seperate U-235), they can only use 6104, out of which about 1044 shall be used only for radioactive synthesis in the field of medicine and industry ● Hard water plant that served as the cornucopia in plutonium production( element used in nuclear bombs) shall be modified into a Hard water reactor with no plutonium by products ● The only plant set up at Natanz(city) shall be allowed to perpetuate restricted and limited nuclear work. Working at other 4 plants (at Arak,Isfahan,Fordo et cetera)shall be abandoned. ● Arm embargo to perpetuate for 5 years and missile embargo to continue for mext 8 years(trade of arms and ballistic missiles) ● International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) shall have full power to inspect the place suspected for nuclear activity. ● Under the Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action(JCPOA), not more than 5061 of the oldest and least efficient centrifuges can be installed at Natanz. ● The US,EU and UN shall lift all sanctions from Iran. However, sanction release will be gradual. And now, THE MOST IMPORTANT POINT ● Treaty has the “Snap back” policy. If Iran is proved guilty of nuclear activity after treaty, all sanctions shall be reimposed.
Above mentioned was a brief recap of clauses of the treaty. Sanctions release has paved way for 100 billion $ previously jammed in international market for Iran. Treaty is being hailed as a step up revolution for Iran, forseeing it as the future Juggernaut in economy. Its something that Mahmoud Najjad couldnt do and Rouhani did.Let me tell you one thing, when all this stuff was going on in the international market, Pakistani media was publishing about Reham Khan’s degree and Ayyan Ali’s money laundring case. Aghast!! The masses were kept in dark about all this treaty stuff.
Relation with Saudi-Iran conflict:
Power aggrandizing tactics are being played by each and every nation of world. Abasing policy has been forgone in favour of policy of reconcillation and dominance. Nations are colluding to thwart one another amid the pre-world war 3 era, hence epitomising the mind set for warfare. I reckon, someone must put a kibosh on the kaleidoscopic events that have encircled the globe. Implementation day(Sanctions release and treaty inplementation day), has provided Iran, the pragmatism to wipe away the lucrative challenges by their rival i.e Saudia Arabia (a conflict which, I would regard as a branch of Cold war with its roots deep in the socio capitalist conflict. Its not simply a sentence but a whole ideology.)
Perks for us,if any? Well, yes the perks for us arent much exorbitant, but still they exist. We cannot alineate Pak-Iran gas pipeline project from Non Proliferation Treaty and sanctions release. In 2013, 1.5 billion $ Pipeline was signed that had been in limbo due to sanctions. Sanctions delayed agreements shall hopefully be completed that will soothe the crippled economy of Pak. There were Islamabad-Tehran projects that had been postponed due to International sanctions on Iran.
Back to The Title:
Well, you must be thinking, that the title is quite archaic, obsolete and misfit in this particular case. Thats not the case. Question is what is the current CONJECTURE (baseless statements or assumptions). The Answer is whether Tehran would ever have access to Nuclear bomb? JCPOA has apparently closed all the doors and put all possible obstacles between Iran and nuclear bomb but then why Israel fears that Iran would have the access. Certain new sanctions have also been imposed due to ballistic missile test, forbiding almost 11 agencies to use the US banking system. Though, Iran has condemned it, but still if they can deviate to a little extent, would they also try to deviate from clauses of treaty. That sounds quite insane but the doors of possibility shall remain open. Most clauses are in effect for 10 or 15 years. After that whats gonna happen? What about the realation between this treaty and the upcoming US Presidential elections?
Abridging my point, certain skeptic questions are rising in minds of those who are much into this matter, but that doesnt calls for conjecture. It must be halted. Lets see whats gonna happen in this Cold War era,
When Umer jots! 